🔗 Share this article

Just 48 hours to go.

England's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of cricket statistics experts, we examine where the highly awaited Ashes series in years could be determined.

It's tough to make runs, isn't it?

Batsmen on each side of the Ashes divide might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has centred around the apparent difficulty of scoring runs, especially for the first Test on a Perth pitch described as a "lush, challenging surface".

Regarding playing in Australian conditions, especially against pace bowling, no nation has been harder in which to score runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Taken as a collective, the surfaces prepared in Australia have recently proved to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and variable bounce are the ideal combination for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from England's cricketing circles describes the Kookaburra ball used in this country as a useless tool for a fast bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, leading to more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are conceding 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When the ball is on top, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be bowler-dominated, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What's going on with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their fast-bowling unit mostly fit, while the hosts are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the first Test with a back issue, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Josh Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first united as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 series.

Since then, they have combined to claim 81% of the wickets taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

The Australian team have rarely had to look elsewhere because of the effectiveness and robustness of the 'leading trio'.

On the occasions Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 Tests at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other members of Australia's supporting cast have performed well.

Neser, Jhye Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The most recent occasion Australia went into a home match without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the duo, they have won by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test previously.

In infrequent cases Australia have had to go past their star fast bowlers, results have not been affected – The tourists should take heed.

Tough at the top

Recall the time England struggled to identify an opening batsman to go alongside Alastair Cook?

Cook changed partners more quickly than Watford go through managers.

No more.

Since Duckett and Crawley were paired at the England opening slot at the close of 2022, no batting partnership in the world has scored more runs together.

The pair's effectiveness as a partnership has been a reason in Zak Crawley being supported through some inconsistent times.

Crawley, who memorably hit the first ball of the previous Ashes for four, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average increases when the bowling gets faster.

By contrast, Australia's top order is in a constant state of flux, yet to fill the David Warner-shaped hole.

Following Warner's retirement at the beginning of 2024, Khawaja has batted with five different partners in 15 matches.

Uncapped Weatherald looks set to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an all-left-handed opening pair.

It's not only the openers that has caused problems for Australia.

Marnus Labuschagne, Australia's long-term number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, probably back at three.

In seven Tests in the current year, the Australian top order have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and the West Indies have done worse.

Battle of Spin

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are unquestionably superior – spin.

Nathan Lyon of Australia, with 562 Test wickets of him, is one of the finest finger-spin bowlers to ever play.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful gamble, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is mainly a batsman.

It makes sense for the hosts to want Lyon at the front, but spin bowling has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the last decade.

In that time, slow bowlers have averaged nearly 44 in Australia, though Lyon's statistics holds up well compared to the difficulties of visiting tweakers.

Another challenge for Lyon is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of pace bowling?

It limits Lyon's time with ball in hand.

In the 2017-18 Ashes here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

In the previous year, in five Tests against the Indian team, it was only half as many.

Test matches in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the new Kookaburra was brought in, meaning Lyon has less space to make an impact.

Right place, right time?

England have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has set off.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed by a floodlit Test in Adelaide Oval.

England have one win in seven pink-ball Tests worldwide, while the hosts have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a city England have visited 14 times since 1970 and won only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the initial three venues on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under altered conditions.

The Perth Test stages an series opener for the first time, not at the fabled Waca – site of past English struggles – but the modern Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the tourists tackle with no past burdens.

The Gabba is the venue for the second Test, the day-night fixture.

The most recent occasion Australia competed in a pink-ball Test at the Brisbane, they were stunned by the West Indies.

Likewise, the Australians are now not used to playing day matches at the usual day-night venue Adelaide Oval.

Across two traditional Tests played in the Adelaide since 2014, Australia lost one, to India, in 2018.

The re-jigged schedule gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, though with risks.

The home side have secured victory in four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the one defeat came in the latest game – against India the previous year.

Every Test at the new venue has been won by the team batting first.

The English often overthink floodlit Tests, when data indicate the pink ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

The challenge in {day-night matches|